spotlight: jeurys familia pt 2 doible a

ho hum...another start, another dominant performance. in his second start in double a, familia went 7, giving up only 3 hits, 3 bbs and no earned runs. he k'ed 6.

his double a total is now 14 innings of 1 run ball 8 hits, 3 bbs, 12 ks.

and right on cue, kevin goldstein at baseball prospectus has taken notice, essentially taking my initial position - this year was a make or break year for familia's future as a starter. goldstein is very impressed with his increased control and says that familia looks like he could become an above-average starter.

spotlight: jeurys familia (aa - part 1)

this seems like a jeurys familia blog at the point, but he just continues to impress. his debut last nite for the aa binghampton mets is as follows:

7 ip, 5 hits, 2 r, 1 er, 6 k, 0 bb

it bears repeating (not for the last time) that the problems that plagued familia last year were two-fold... bad luck and a higher walk rate. his luck this year has been really good and he has the lowest walk rate of his minor league career.

as paul depodesta, head of amateur scouting and player development for the mets, just stated, familia will prob not be called up to the majors in september. i completely agree with this decision (although there are still 4 months until a real decision needs to be made). familia had made great strides thus far and if there is any hope he can develop into a reliable starter, he needs to continue to work on his command in the minors.

promoted: jeurys familia (in aa)

the last time we spoke (or i spoke and you ignored), we were evaluating familia's 3rd start of the year. since then, he's made 3 more starts, 2 great, 1 not so. his starts (4-6) resulting in the following:
4) 7 ip, 3 h, 0 runs, 3 bb, 8 ks
5) 4 ip, 7 h, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 5 ks
6) 6.2 ip, 5 h, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 ks

his last start was on may 5 and on sunday he was promoted to aa (in binghamton, ny). as i predicted a may call up is probably wise as the weather heats up in upstate new york. familia's final line in high-a ball was
ip: 36.1
hits: 21
bb: 8
k: 36
er: 6
hr: 1

as we discussed in our first familia post, he was due for a bit of regression this year (with his bad luck) hopefully resulting in some good luck. that has surely come. his babip is a mere .225. his strand rate is over 80%, both career highs. his hr/9 is .25 which is below his career average as well. his k rate is the 2nd best of his career at 8.92 and his bb rate is easily his lowest at 1.98.

we discussed previously the reason we were so confident in his performance this season and believed that it would lead to greater confidence and a may promotion. now that we are at that moment, the question now becomes how he handles the promotion.

jeurys' 1.49 era is not a proper representation of his skills. the jump to aa will make that very clear. the single most important statistic for familia will be his bb rate. he pitches over 6 innings per start mostly due to his ability to limit the free passes. his k rate should continue to be respectable but aa hitters will be much more skilled and patient at the plate.

familia will most certainly spend the rest of this year at aa. and in doing so, a lot of the questions about his future will be answered - can he be a starter or is he destined for the bullpen? his fastball sits around 94 and is a solid offering, but his changeup and slider are nothing special at this point. he needs to maintain his command and control if he has any chance to be a starter in the big leagues. we will find out a lot in the next few months whether he currently has that ability.

spotlight: jeurys familia pt 3

jeurys made his 3rd start of the year for the high-a st. lucie mets yesterday. he pitched 5.2 innings, giving up just an unearned run, 4 hits, 2 bb, and 4 ks. this brings his total for the season to 18.2 innings (in 3 starts), 2 runs, 1 earned, 6 hits, 4 bbs, 17 ks.

his k/bb ratio is about 3 which is a great sign for jeurys who has had his troubles with his bb rate last year. his bb rate early on is about 2bb/9 which is quite similar to his great years in 08 and 09.

jeurys and matt harvey (the 7th pick in the 2010 draft who jim callis from baseball america just called the best pitcher in the minors thus far) form a dominant duo. i predicted a good bounce back season for jeurys due to his high k rate, low strand rate and high babip last year while repeating the same level. i still expect a promotion to double-a in may with harvey once the weather gets nice where jeurys will remain for the rest of the year.

NBA PLAYOFF PREVIEW

the nba playoffs are, i believe, the least interesting of the 4 major team pro sports. the favorites usually win and there are only a handful of teams that realistically can compete for the championship. that being said, there are certainly a few intriguing questions going into this 2 1/2 month marathon 2nd season.

the western conference:
the lakers are the favorites because they are the #2 seed and have a ton of recent experience to rely on. the spurs and mavs both have had great seasons but both have a lot of skeptics. the thunder, nuggets and blazers have found renewed energy after big trades this season. the hornets and grizz will be simply hoping to make their first rounds competitive.

the best two first round matchups are between the thunder/nuggets and mavs/blazers. the thunder are the young, up-and-coming team that might be the best bet outside the lakers to reach the finals (esp since they would not have to play them until the conf finals). they run into a hot nuggets team that has played better since trading away melo at the deadline. the mavs have struggled since losing butler for the season while the blazers have seemingly come together with gerald wallace.

i think that the western conference is much more wide open than most people expect. i can see any of the top six teams betting any of the other teams in a series. but, at the end of the day, i think this western conference season will come down to two storylines and that is the continued dominance of the lakers and the arrival of the thunder as contenders. the thunder have the defense, the scorers and now a veteran presence in the middle that can go against the size of the lakers' gasol/bynum/odom trio.

the eastern conference:

the eastern conference as usual is much more top heavy than the west. the bulls are the best and most complete team as the heat still are trying to find themselves and the celtics have seemingly lost themselves. the magic have just struggled to stay in the conversation. honestly, no other team is worth discussing except as potential upset contenders (i.e. the knicks and hawks).

each of the top 3 teams has to answer a huge question before we truly believe they can be crowned champion. the bulls are solid, have size, strength, dynamic players on both end of the court, but have not played a long time together and their best player is still a playoff baby. the heat have arguably the two best players in the nba but the rest of the team is either average or terrible. will their up tempo game lead to playoff success? can they execute consistently in the half court? the celtics seem to have lost their heart and soul after the perkins trade, but i can't believe that their toughness or pride is completely gone. they still have 4 high quality players and the experience that no one else in the east has.

PREDICTIONS:

in the east, i'm a believer in the bulls. between the heat and celtics, they will end up playing a long, intense series with conflicting styles. whichever one ends up going against the bulls in the conf finals will meet a team that is young, hungry and has the defense to test your will. the heat will lose in the middle and at hte pg spots while the bulls will be able to contain their perimeter enough to win. if it's the celtics, they will see a younger, hungrier version of themselves... a team that will have the legs and desire to fight for every possession and loose ball.

in the west, the lakers will go against the thunder in the conference finals and although today, the thunder probably can not match the lakers in talent and experience, i believe that the thunder will gain enough experience and teamwork in the next month to overcome the aging lakers and an aging kobe. kobe will fail to take over the last stages of the game resulting in either a turnover or a foul and we will all be left wondering if he will ever be the same again.

THE FINALS will be the first matchup of a the new breed. the bulls and thunder showcase the perfect combination of youth and experience, both able to play on both sides of the court and win in many different ways. at the end of the day, derrick rose will take home the reg season mvp and nba finals mvp showing us all that arrogance and success don't necessarily go hand-in-hand.

spotlight: jeurys familia start 2

a few days ago i spotlighted mets pitching prospect jeurys familia, who had just made his first start of the high-a season.

he followed up that 7 inn., 7k performance with another gem on wednesday. he pitched 6 inn, with 1 hit, 2bb, 6k and 1 er. reports are that he threw three solid pitches (a fastball, change and slider) with his fastball touching 96.

familia got 7 groundball outs v 3 fly ball outs which is why he does not give up many hrs. the 2bb is a good sign as well.

by my account he has pitched 13 innings, with 2 hits, 2bb and 1er and 13ks. a lot of good signs here

spotlight: jeurys familia

jeurys is a starting pitching prospect for the mets, currently on their high-a team, the st. lucie mets. keith law ranks him as the mets #10 prospect, baseball prospectus ranks him #13 and baseball america has him unranked in each of the last 3 years he's been a pro.

jeurys is 21 years old and won't turn 22 until after this season is over. unlike other mets prospects he has not been rushed through the system, spending his age 18 season in rookie ball, his age 19 season in low-a, and his age 20 season in high-a where he will open up his age 21 season. on friday night, he started his first game of the year and pitched 7 innings with 7ks, giving up just 1 hit and 0 walks.

since his debut in 2008, his k rate has increased each year from 6.62 to 7.32 to 10.19 last year. his era, however, skyrocketed from less than 2.80 in each of his first two years to 5.58 last year. his fip was only 3.89 though and was more consistent with his low 3 fips from previous years. the high era can probably be attributed to his increased bb rate which doubled from 08 to 10, from 2.26 to 5.50. that number though was tempered by his increased k rate and was reflected in his slightly increased fip number.

what keeps his fip reasonably low and what should come back to normal this year is his strand rate, which was around 72% previously but dropped sharply to 60.7% in 2010. his babip also jumped from .273 to .341. finally, the last reason that his fip was reasonably low with all those walks is that his hr rate is only 0.52 and was even lower the previous two years.

the mets front office has taken a mildly approach than the previous regimes (especially tony bernazard who famously tried to fight one of his minor league affiliates) who would promote rapidly if you showed any signs of success. one of the more famous examples of this was fernando martinez and that hasn't worked out so great. the new front office will mostly take a case-by-case approach but should probably allow their raw prospects to enjoy some prolonged success before pushing them up a level.

in jeurys' case, his high era last year should drop significantly if he can keep his k rate high, regardless of his walk rate, simply bc his babip and strand rate should both move towards the norm. if he can get his walk rate back to his career norm of 4.00 at the same time, he could be looking at some gaudy numbers. with some luck even, we could be looking at a sub 3 era, which would result in a nice dose of confidence moving forward.

as it usually is with most prospects i am hoping for the best. jeurys made 24 starts last year, pitching about 5 innings per start. hopefully he can make about 10 starts in high-a ball before being promoted to double-a (with matt harvey perhaps), where they definitely can use some starting pitching help. familia will certainly need to work on his control and command to limit his walks but some scouts have predicted a move to the bullpen anyway once he moves up the system. either way, confidence can't hurt and it seems as though he's well on his way to achieving that early in this season.

....shooting for a 2013 arrival