what's wrong with johan santana?

recently buster olney (espn contributor and yankees fan) blogged that last year was possibly the beginning of the decline of johan santana. and it may possibly be. this year, in ten starts, he's 5-3 with a 3.36 era, 1.18 whip, 2.48 baa, 7.8 k/9, 11 hr, and a k/bb ratio of 4:1. let's rewind a bit. here are his numbers in april and may since 2004 which is when he became a full time starter.

2007: 11 starts, 6-4, 3.21 era, 1.08 whip, .223 baa, 10.7 k/9, 12 hr, 4.5:1 k/bb ratio
2006: 11 starts, 4-4, 3.48 era, 1.13 whip, .245 baa, 9.6 k/9, 9 hr, 5:1 k/bb ratio (CY YOUNG)
2005: 11 starts, 6-2, 3.72 era, 0.97 whip, .223 baa, 10.9 k/9, 8 hr, 9:1 k/bb ratio
2004: 11 starts, 2-3, 5.70 ear, 1.49 whip, .294 baa, 8.0 k/9, 11 hr, 3:1 k/bb ratio (CY YOUNG)

AVG: 4.5-3.25, 4.03 era, 1.17 whip, .246 baa, 9.8 k/9, 10 hr, 5:1 k/bb ratio

2008: 10 starts, 5-3, 3.36 era, 1.18 whip, .248 baa, 7.8 k/9, 11 hr, 4:1 k/bb ratio

i know he plays in the nl now, but i would argue that the nl is just as good as the al these days (see cubs, dbacks, chase utley, albert pujols, peavy and webb). johan has always been a notoriously slow starter. his underlying numbers this year are slightly worse than his career averages in the months of may/april but not by that much even when factoring in the nl. as much as hitters have to adjust to him, he has to adjust to the hitters. and in arguably his worst two april/mays (04 and 06) he won the cy young awards. so let's just jump to any early season conclusions and let's see how it plays out. he deserves at least one full season in new york before we can say that he's more carlos zambrano than sandy koufax.

my weekend and yours

lots of college sports on this weekend... ncaa championships across the board. nba conference finals... baseball season is underway... sydney crosby finals, i mean nhl of course. the indy 500 features 11 rookies out of the 31 drivers (due to the merger between whatever the two open wheel organizations were called).

i will be foregoing it all for 27 holes of golf (18 on saturday, 9 on sunday) and some sun, beach and bbq... the traditional memorial day weekend activities. for anyone who lives in the metropolitan ny area, the red course at bethpage state park golf course is a helluva challenge and hella fun (cali slang). the black course was famously the site of the us open several years back (tiger was the only player under par for the weekend... two guesses who won). there are five courses at bethpage, with red being the second most difficult. you might think that i'm good at golf, but if i break 105 i'll consider it one of my finest achievements on the golf course... but as my friend always likes to point out, a bad day of golf is always better than a good day at work... i'm not sure what he says when it's a saturday... i'll get back to you on that.

here's my take on the mets

fire willie... tell omar to stop trading away talent for non-talent (see jeff keppinger, heath bell, brian bannister) or else you'll never see the inside of the jackie robinson rotunda... stop following mlb slotting guidelines and draft top talent... don't give four year contracts to 30-plus yr old second basemen with bad knees... sell the team to owners who aren't morons... cut damion easley cuz he stinks (no offense but he does)... tell rick peterson to stop talking biomechanics and start talking pitching... tell jose reyes that you don't always have to swing at the first pitch... tell carlos delgado that with two strikes, they are going to pitch you a high and tight fastball so you may as well lay off of it for once... AND BRING BACK BOBBY VALENTINE

his name is pronounced DAN TONY....

will people stop referring to knicks coach mike d'antoni as mike DAN ITONIO... first it was knicks gm donnie walsh so maybe he's to blame. but its gotta stop because it's not a difficult name to pronounce. take away the apostrophe and it reads, DANTONI. then split up the DAN and the TONI and you get two of the easiest words to pronounce. now just put it together. it's actually quite simple.

Save Now

america's game

http://sports.espn.go.com/extra/lacrosse/index

Quint Kessenich, a lynbrook high school alum (my alma mater), an espn college sports analyst and one of the greatest lacrosse players of all time (along with nfl hall of famer and fellow long islander Jim Brown), gives you an introduction to the sport of lacrosse on the page referenced above. i highly recommend you to the check it out. knowing the rules, positions and strategies involved in a sport is the first step to becoming a fan.

lacrosse is considered the oldest american sport, first played by native american indians hundreds of years ago, partly to settle disputes through sport instead of war. today, lacrosse finds its hotbeds in states like new york and maryland, although it's popularity is steadily growing. and although the perception is that it's played by mostly white, upper class kids, the diversity of its athletes is definitely growing along with its popularity.

tomorrow, on saturday the 24th, espn 2 will be airing the national semifinals for the ncaa division 1 championship. two perennial powerhouses in #2 virginia and #3 syracuse will face each other at 12 noon and then at 2pm, #1 duke plays #5 johns hopkins (rematch of last year's finals, hopkins won 12-11). if you like big hits, shots that reach 100 mph and really one of the best, untainted collegiate sports in america then it's a can't miss event.

one final thing: as many of you remember, duke was wrapped up in a scandal like none other a few years ago that cost them their season when they were ranked #1. at the time, three players were accused of raping a stripper, a black female from a nearby college. these three players, all white and from affluent families (one kid was from long island, one went to delbarton high in jersey) were accused of some awful things and issues of racism and eliticism were brought up. i am sad to admit that even in a society like ours, which is supposed to stand for innocent until proven guilty, it is rarely the case when it comes to public perception. and i, for one, am definitely guilty of that. i definitely believed that something terribly wrong occurred in that duke lacrosse house, and although we'll never know the truth, we can be sure that these three kids, along with the entire duke lacrosse team, were never treated fairly by the media and by me.

all that being said, i'm glad that the duke lacrosse program is sitting atop the rankings once again and playing for a chance at the national championship. it's definitely a little bit of redemption for that program (even though the three kids no longer are on the team and the coach got fired) and it makes for a great story, albeit a relatively untalked about one

mike d'antoni already making an impact

According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Warriors' Baron Davis has made inquiries into the interest of certain teams around the league, including the Knicks. Davis, 29, has an opt-out clause for this summer that could make him a free agent, but the Warriors don't believe he would walk away from the final year and $17.8 million, which is money the dynamic but oft-injured guard likely wouldn't make on the open market. So Davis' only other play is to see if another team would pursue a sign-and-trade for him. According to the source, his representation, after a preliminary discussion with the Warriors, has put out feelers to gauge the interest of teams in need of an upgrade at point guard. -- Newsday

the question is whether baron davis would have made such an inquiry last year or three years ago? probably not. this is not to say that mike d'antoni is the reason he is inquiring into the knicks situation. i'm sure his dissatisfaction with don nelson plays a part as does the lure of playing in new york in general, but the fact remains that players seem to love playing for mike d'antoni or at least his perceived up and down system.

this is the major reason why i believe this hiring was a great move by walsh. i'm not sure if d'antoni is ever going to bring a championship ring to new york, but i know that players are going to be more comfortable coming to play for this franchise, especially after the fiasco that was isiah thomas.

new jersey tries to ruin giants' glory

"Whether you or a football fan or not, I'm sure you found yourself caught up in the hype this past winter with the success of the New Jersey Giants," said Sen. Paul Sarlo, D-Bergen. "I emphasize the New Jersey Giants."

i'll first concede by saying that i'm partly embarrassed with the fact that the new york giants play in the swampy wastelands we refer to as new jersey. but the fact remains that many teams don't play in the city they represent. the bills play in orchard park, the angels play in anaheim, the pistons play in auburn hills.

if the giants played on long island or in westchester, they would still be called the new york giants. regardless of what city or state they play in, the giants represent new york city. no one can deny that north jersey is merely a suburb of this great city. the name new york means the city, not the state of new york. if you could find a reasonable place for the giants to play in the city limits, they would i'm sure, but that's unreasonable. so instead they play ten miles west of city limits.

i won't continue to rant... bottom line, it's the new york giants. they will never be the new jersey giants, but god bless these silly senators for trying. why don't they hold some congressional hearings!

"it's an a bomb from a-rod"... or maybe not

a-rod was the third person this week to be victimized by errant calls from the umpires regarding home runs. i was at the mets/yankees game this past sunday night when carlos delgado lost a 3-run hr to a blown call. it took my fifteen seconds to phone a friend and have him tell me that the replay showed it was a home run. it took the umps over five minutes to make the call, reverse the call, bring all the players back on the field, listen to willie randolph bitch and then proceed to throw out the mets bench coach.

the arguments have been made... human error is part of the game, it takes too long, it slows down the game, it's not perfect, etc. etc. they're all pretty dumb if you ask me.

human error is only part of the game because we had no choice. we rely on humans to ref a game or ump a game because back in 1932 we had no other option. today, we do. let's name the sports that have implemented some form of instant replay: football (both nfl and college), nhl (on goals scored), nba (on quarter ending plays), tennis (on line calls). i'm sure there are more. what's common among all these sports is that instant replay has actually benefited the game. and with the exception of the nfl, instant replay doesn't make the game unbearably longer.

it's insane to me that people don't want to make progress. we have the technology to get calls right and to make the game more fair. the rules state that a ball that clears the outfield fence should be called a homerun. the umpires are the ones who should enforce the rules not decide them. it won't take any longer and the ONLY thing it will do is make sure we get fair outcomes. who really doesn't want that?

jeter robbin the proverbial craddle?

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1310368/

the new york post reports that jeter has been seen hanging out with this hottie, who plays a senior in high school, on the show 'Friday Night Lights'. i'm going to assume she's of age and if so, i feel perfectly fine saying that she is absolutely gorgeous.

friday night lights is a great show (bill simmons calls it the best show of all time) and ms. minka kelly adds a great deal of aesthetic prowess to the show. she's hot. apparently, jeter is still the man and if i were a jealous man, i'd be extremely jealous. all i can say is congrats and i hope you fuck it up so the rest of us can dream of having a chance.

breaking news: home run derby to decide the world series

just as ridiculous as this headline would be is the headline that reads:

Manchester United wins Champions League final on penalty shootout

penalty shootout? so like the stanley cup being decided on a shootout or the nba finals being decided on a 3pt shooting contest. "ray allens hits 18 of 20 from 3pt land to win celtics 17th championship!" i mean, c'mon.

i'm not the world's biggest soccer fan, but i know it's ridiculous to have the European Champions League title decided by penalty shoots. It's true that they could have legitimately played another 90 minutes without scoring another goal, but it seems like a cop-out to decide such an important game this way. the nhl started having shootouts to decide regular season games but they don't do that come playoff time because it's not a true measure of talent. it's gimmicky; nothing less.

i didn't watch the game yesterday due to a prior engagement (namely work) so maybe i'm misguided. i'm sure it was exciting as hell. but i'm also sure that it would have been equally exciting, if not much more, if the teams were to battle it out playing the actual game, not just one facet of the game.

i know that both teams were in the same position so i don't think that the outcome was bullshit or anything... it's just that shootouts seem like a terribly poor way to decide championships. kind of like having each football team start at the opposing team's twenty yard line (here's to you ncaa).

willie's getting the silent treatment

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3407930

mets owners apparently aren't speaking to willie. i don't know where the brash talk from beltran and jeff wilpon went but it's not there anymore. it's easy to talk big when things look promising on paper or when you're on top... but silence when you're in a heap of trouble speaks much louder than words ever could.

let's just say that i see trouble on the horizon for mr. randolph and i, for one, am not averse to this sort of trouble.

mlb slotting guidelines: should we be listening?

mlb slotting guidelines deal with the first-year player mlb draft (which starts in june). similar to football and basketball, the slotting guidelines recommend the bonuses that clubs should be offering to their players based on what draft pick they were (1st pick should get higher bonuses than 2nd, etc.). the guidelines are designed to stop higher revenue clubs from getting the best players in the draft even with worse draft picks. this occurs because high profile players (some represented by scott boras) want big bonuses and small market clubs realize this and are unwilling to spend high picks on these players due to the fear that they will be unable to sign them. think jd drew, who went back into the draft after the phillies drafted him (he was later drafted by the cardinals the following year).

we're going to start with the simple supposition that baseball teams are better served by putting a greater portion of their revenue into the draft, scouting and development rather than signing mediocre free agents. as it stands today, most teams do not follow this approach (see pittsburgh pirates, new york mets, kansas city royals). but teams like the tampa bay devil rays, the boston red sox and the new york yankees have started to see the light when it comes to this philosophy.

and so we have the slotting guidelines. the problem is that there are just that... guidelines, nothing more. mlb has no power to control how much money teams give to their players as bonuses. they can just try and convince the 30 teams that it's in their collective best interest to follow them. and that's true. if all 30 teams followed the guidelines then bonuses would be driven down and teams would obviously save some money. but for teams like the red sox and yankees, they have no incentive to follow suit. relatively speaking, it would hurt them while helping out the smaller market teams that never gave out the big bonuses in the first place.

so why do most teams continue to follow this practice? well, for most teams it is still their hope that teams will fall in line and will help drive down prices. and second, most of these teams have no choice as they are not financially in the position (or are not smart enough) to put a higher percentage of their revenue into the draft.

if teams started putting more money into the draft it would either 1) make the red sox and yankees (and tigers) spend even more in the draft to get the big time players thus pushing the bonuses up even higher (which would lead to the same situation as before) or 2) it would create equal bargaining power with draftees. it is still the fear that option 1 would occur and therefore teams are reluctant to bypass the guidelines especially if it is going to drive up the prices anyway with a higher bottom line.

then we have the mets, who don't have financial difficulty (forbes values them as the second most expensive ballclub) yet are not willing to go against the mlb slotting guidelines. we can see the ramifications of their choices in the last couple of years. they have drafted many college relief pitchers (players who don't normally get big bonuses and are quick to get to the majors) and now their farm system is almost completely devoid of any top level prospects (some of that is due to the santana trade). so why do the mets continue to do this? i wish i knew.... it is complete insanity. it is understandable that small or mid market teams believe they have no real choice, but almost all big market teams have forgone the guidelines in lieu of their traditional spending habits. the mets have not (and i'm sure one or two other big market teams as well). for now, the red sox, yankees and tigers are taking advantage of a big competitive edge that will most likely show up in the next two to five years in terms of their major league competitiveness.

so the answer to the question is no. the mlb has shown that they lack either the power or desire to enforce any restrictions on bonuses given to first year players. and in doing so, the power structure in the draft has moved back to what it once was, with the yanks and sox on top. some teams like the royals believe that they have no choice but to follow and some teams like the mets are just stupid to follow.

if baseball is serious in trying to create a balance of power in the draft, they have to concern themselves with the general state of baseball financial equality that will filter it's way down to draft bargaining power. without doing so, teams will always have the incentive to bypass the guidelines to gain a competitive edge. (it is true, however, that the luxury tax and some revenue sharing has led to much greater financial equality in baseball, but it's still far from that of the nfl)

to be honest, the teams could easily rectify this themselves. if they were smart enough they'd put more money into the draft and the royals would never spend 10 mill a year on gill meche. but we'll save that for another day.

for those who hate joe morgan as much as me

this blog is designed to be an intelligent exchange of ideas on a variety of sports topics. we'll discuss anything from the economics side of sports to the jessica simpson side of sports. but we'll always try to keep it fun, simple and most importantly, smart. obviously many people will have differing opinions and comments are always welcome. so let's start this process they call blogging and see if we can come up with something at least a bit unique.