spotlight: jeurys familia pt 2 doible a

ho hum...another start, another dominant performance. in his second start in double a, familia went 7, giving up only 3 hits, 3 bbs and no earned runs. he k'ed 6.

his double a total is now 14 innings of 1 run ball 8 hits, 3 bbs, 12 ks.

and right on cue, kevin goldstein at baseball prospectus has taken notice, essentially taking my initial position - this year was a make or break year for familia's future as a starter. goldstein is very impressed with his increased control and says that familia looks like he could become an above-average starter.

spotlight: jeurys familia (aa - part 1)

this seems like a jeurys familia blog at the point, but he just continues to impress. his debut last nite for the aa binghampton mets is as follows:

7 ip, 5 hits, 2 r, 1 er, 6 k, 0 bb

it bears repeating (not for the last time) that the problems that plagued familia last year were two-fold... bad luck and a higher walk rate. his luck this year has been really good and he has the lowest walk rate of his minor league career.

as paul depodesta, head of amateur scouting and player development for the mets, just stated, familia will prob not be called up to the majors in september. i completely agree with this decision (although there are still 4 months until a real decision needs to be made). familia had made great strides thus far and if there is any hope he can develop into a reliable starter, he needs to continue to work on his command in the minors.

promoted: jeurys familia (in aa)

the last time we spoke (or i spoke and you ignored), we were evaluating familia's 3rd start of the year. since then, he's made 3 more starts, 2 great, 1 not so. his starts (4-6) resulting in the following:
4) 7 ip, 3 h, 0 runs, 3 bb, 8 ks
5) 4 ip, 7 h, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 5 ks
6) 6.2 ip, 5 h, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 ks

his last start was on may 5 and on sunday he was promoted to aa (in binghamton, ny). as i predicted a may call up is probably wise as the weather heats up in upstate new york. familia's final line in high-a ball was
ip: 36.1
hits: 21
bb: 8
k: 36
er: 6
hr: 1

as we discussed in our first familia post, he was due for a bit of regression this year (with his bad luck) hopefully resulting in some good luck. that has surely come. his babip is a mere .225. his strand rate is over 80%, both career highs. his hr/9 is .25 which is below his career average as well. his k rate is the 2nd best of his career at 8.92 and his bb rate is easily his lowest at 1.98.

we discussed previously the reason we were so confident in his performance this season and believed that it would lead to greater confidence and a may promotion. now that we are at that moment, the question now becomes how he handles the promotion.

jeurys' 1.49 era is not a proper representation of his skills. the jump to aa will make that very clear. the single most important statistic for familia will be his bb rate. he pitches over 6 innings per start mostly due to his ability to limit the free passes. his k rate should continue to be respectable but aa hitters will be much more skilled and patient at the plate.

familia will most certainly spend the rest of this year at aa. and in doing so, a lot of the questions about his future will be answered - can he be a starter or is he destined for the bullpen? his fastball sits around 94 and is a solid offering, but his changeup and slider are nothing special at this point. he needs to maintain his command and control if he has any chance to be a starter in the big leagues. we will find out a lot in the next few months whether he currently has that ability.