recently buster olney (espn contributor and yankees fan) blogged that last year was possibly the beginning of the decline of johan santana. and it may possibly be. this year, in ten starts, he's 5-3 with a 3.36 era, 1.18 whip, 2.48 baa, 7.8 k/9, 11 hr, and a k/bb ratio of 4:1. let's rewind a bit. here are his numbers in april and may since 2004 which is when he became a full time starter.
2007: 11 starts, 6-4, 3.21 era, 1.08 whip, .223 baa, 10.7 k/9, 12 hr, 4.5:1 k/bb ratio
2006: 11 starts, 4-4, 3.48 era, 1.13 whip, .245 baa, 9.6 k/9, 9 hr, 5:1 k/bb ratio (CY YOUNG)
2005: 11 starts, 6-2, 3.72 era, 0.97 whip, .223 baa, 10.9 k/9, 8 hr, 9:1 k/bb ratio
2004: 11 starts, 2-3, 5.70 ear, 1.49 whip, .294 baa, 8.0 k/9, 11 hr, 3:1 k/bb ratio (CY YOUNG)
AVG: 4.5-3.25, 4.03 era, 1.17 whip, .246 baa, 9.8 k/9, 10 hr, 5:1 k/bb ratio
2008: 10 starts, 5-3, 3.36 era, 1.18 whip, .248 baa, 7.8 k/9, 11 hr, 4:1 k/bb ratio
i know he plays in the nl now, but i would argue that the nl is just as good as the al these days (see cubs, dbacks, chase utley, albert pujols, peavy and webb). johan has always been a notoriously slow starter. his underlying numbers this year are slightly worse than his career averages in the months of may/april but not by that much even when factoring in the nl. as much as hitters have to adjust to him, he has to adjust to the hitters. and in arguably his worst two april/mays (04 and 06) he won the cy young awards. so let's just jump to any early season conclusions and let's see how it plays out. he deserves at least one full season in new york before we can say that he's more carlos zambrano than sandy koufax.
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2 comments:
I dont see any decline at all in those numbers.
The change in leagues you ABSOLUTELY have to consider: the league ERA is 4.31 in the AL, and its 4.05 in the NL, but Johan's sample isnt large enough to detect a 0.3 difference in ERA (thats only 2 less ER). I chalk it up to noise.
But it shouldnt be all that suprising to see Johan "decline", if indeed he is. He's 29, and just had a 4 year run of being the best pitcher in baseball. Its hard to maintain a level of performance so far and away above the rest of your competition, and its perfectly likely that Johan just played out his peak years. But any "decline" for Johan still makes him one of the best pitchers in baseball.
The only question I have is why the eff is anybody listening to Buster Olney, that guys is a moron.
hearing or listening? i don't which one means what, but i def don't follow what he says. i just choose to address it. and to be fair, santana is a god that is just playing with these humans to have a laugh. he'll turn it on when he's good and ready to.
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