spotlight: jeurys familia pt 2 doible a

ho hum...another start, another dominant performance. in his second start in double a, familia went 7, giving up only 3 hits, 3 bbs and no earned runs. he k'ed 6.

his double a total is now 14 innings of 1 run ball 8 hits, 3 bbs, 12 ks.

and right on cue, kevin goldstein at baseball prospectus has taken notice, essentially taking my initial position - this year was a make or break year for familia's future as a starter. goldstein is very impressed with his increased control and says that familia looks like he could become an above-average starter.

spotlight: jeurys familia (aa - part 1)

this seems like a jeurys familia blog at the point, but he just continues to impress. his debut last nite for the aa binghampton mets is as follows:

7 ip, 5 hits, 2 r, 1 er, 6 k, 0 bb

it bears repeating (not for the last time) that the problems that plagued familia last year were two-fold... bad luck and a higher walk rate. his luck this year has been really good and he has the lowest walk rate of his minor league career.

as paul depodesta, head of amateur scouting and player development for the mets, just stated, familia will prob not be called up to the majors in september. i completely agree with this decision (although there are still 4 months until a real decision needs to be made). familia had made great strides thus far and if there is any hope he can develop into a reliable starter, he needs to continue to work on his command in the minors.

promoted: jeurys familia (in aa)

the last time we spoke (or i spoke and you ignored), we were evaluating familia's 3rd start of the year. since then, he's made 3 more starts, 2 great, 1 not so. his starts (4-6) resulting in the following:
4) 7 ip, 3 h, 0 runs, 3 bb, 8 ks
5) 4 ip, 7 h, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 5 ks
6) 6.2 ip, 5 h, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 ks

his last start was on may 5 and on sunday he was promoted to aa (in binghamton, ny). as i predicted a may call up is probably wise as the weather heats up in upstate new york. familia's final line in high-a ball was
ip: 36.1
hits: 21
bb: 8
k: 36
er: 6
hr: 1

as we discussed in our first familia post, he was due for a bit of regression this year (with his bad luck) hopefully resulting in some good luck. that has surely come. his babip is a mere .225. his strand rate is over 80%, both career highs. his hr/9 is .25 which is below his career average as well. his k rate is the 2nd best of his career at 8.92 and his bb rate is easily his lowest at 1.98.

we discussed previously the reason we were so confident in his performance this season and believed that it would lead to greater confidence and a may promotion. now that we are at that moment, the question now becomes how he handles the promotion.

jeurys' 1.49 era is not a proper representation of his skills. the jump to aa will make that very clear. the single most important statistic for familia will be his bb rate. he pitches over 6 innings per start mostly due to his ability to limit the free passes. his k rate should continue to be respectable but aa hitters will be much more skilled and patient at the plate.

familia will most certainly spend the rest of this year at aa. and in doing so, a lot of the questions about his future will be answered - can he be a starter or is he destined for the bullpen? his fastball sits around 94 and is a solid offering, but his changeup and slider are nothing special at this point. he needs to maintain his command and control if he has any chance to be a starter in the big leagues. we will find out a lot in the next few months whether he currently has that ability.

spotlight: jeurys familia pt 3

jeurys made his 3rd start of the year for the high-a st. lucie mets yesterday. he pitched 5.2 innings, giving up just an unearned run, 4 hits, 2 bb, and 4 ks. this brings his total for the season to 18.2 innings (in 3 starts), 2 runs, 1 earned, 6 hits, 4 bbs, 17 ks.

his k/bb ratio is about 3 which is a great sign for jeurys who has had his troubles with his bb rate last year. his bb rate early on is about 2bb/9 which is quite similar to his great years in 08 and 09.

jeurys and matt harvey (the 7th pick in the 2010 draft who jim callis from baseball america just called the best pitcher in the minors thus far) form a dominant duo. i predicted a good bounce back season for jeurys due to his high k rate, low strand rate and high babip last year while repeating the same level. i still expect a promotion to double-a in may with harvey once the weather gets nice where jeurys will remain for the rest of the year.

NBA PLAYOFF PREVIEW

the nba playoffs are, i believe, the least interesting of the 4 major team pro sports. the favorites usually win and there are only a handful of teams that realistically can compete for the championship. that being said, there are certainly a few intriguing questions going into this 2 1/2 month marathon 2nd season.

the western conference:
the lakers are the favorites because they are the #2 seed and have a ton of recent experience to rely on. the spurs and mavs both have had great seasons but both have a lot of skeptics. the thunder, nuggets and blazers have found renewed energy after big trades this season. the hornets and grizz will be simply hoping to make their first rounds competitive.

the best two first round matchups are between the thunder/nuggets and mavs/blazers. the thunder are the young, up-and-coming team that might be the best bet outside the lakers to reach the finals (esp since they would not have to play them until the conf finals). they run into a hot nuggets team that has played better since trading away melo at the deadline. the mavs have struggled since losing butler for the season while the blazers have seemingly come together with gerald wallace.

i think that the western conference is much more wide open than most people expect. i can see any of the top six teams betting any of the other teams in a series. but, at the end of the day, i think this western conference season will come down to two storylines and that is the continued dominance of the lakers and the arrival of the thunder as contenders. the thunder have the defense, the scorers and now a veteran presence in the middle that can go against the size of the lakers' gasol/bynum/odom trio.

the eastern conference:

the eastern conference as usual is much more top heavy than the west. the bulls are the best and most complete team as the heat still are trying to find themselves and the celtics have seemingly lost themselves. the magic have just struggled to stay in the conversation. honestly, no other team is worth discussing except as potential upset contenders (i.e. the knicks and hawks).

each of the top 3 teams has to answer a huge question before we truly believe they can be crowned champion. the bulls are solid, have size, strength, dynamic players on both end of the court, but have not played a long time together and their best player is still a playoff baby. the heat have arguably the two best players in the nba but the rest of the team is either average or terrible. will their up tempo game lead to playoff success? can they execute consistently in the half court? the celtics seem to have lost their heart and soul after the perkins trade, but i can't believe that their toughness or pride is completely gone. they still have 4 high quality players and the experience that no one else in the east has.

PREDICTIONS:

in the east, i'm a believer in the bulls. between the heat and celtics, they will end up playing a long, intense series with conflicting styles. whichever one ends up going against the bulls in the conf finals will meet a team that is young, hungry and has the defense to test your will. the heat will lose in the middle and at hte pg spots while the bulls will be able to contain their perimeter enough to win. if it's the celtics, they will see a younger, hungrier version of themselves... a team that will have the legs and desire to fight for every possession and loose ball.

in the west, the lakers will go against the thunder in the conference finals and although today, the thunder probably can not match the lakers in talent and experience, i believe that the thunder will gain enough experience and teamwork in the next month to overcome the aging lakers and an aging kobe. kobe will fail to take over the last stages of the game resulting in either a turnover or a foul and we will all be left wondering if he will ever be the same again.

THE FINALS will be the first matchup of a the new breed. the bulls and thunder showcase the perfect combination of youth and experience, both able to play on both sides of the court and win in many different ways. at the end of the day, derrick rose will take home the reg season mvp and nba finals mvp showing us all that arrogance and success don't necessarily go hand-in-hand.

spotlight: jeurys familia start 2

a few days ago i spotlighted mets pitching prospect jeurys familia, who had just made his first start of the high-a season.

he followed up that 7 inn., 7k performance with another gem on wednesday. he pitched 6 inn, with 1 hit, 2bb, 6k and 1 er. reports are that he threw three solid pitches (a fastball, change and slider) with his fastball touching 96.

familia got 7 groundball outs v 3 fly ball outs which is why he does not give up many hrs. the 2bb is a good sign as well.

by my account he has pitched 13 innings, with 2 hits, 2bb and 1er and 13ks. a lot of good signs here

spotlight: jeurys familia

jeurys is a starting pitching prospect for the mets, currently on their high-a team, the st. lucie mets. keith law ranks him as the mets #10 prospect, baseball prospectus ranks him #13 and baseball america has him unranked in each of the last 3 years he's been a pro.

jeurys is 21 years old and won't turn 22 until after this season is over. unlike other mets prospects he has not been rushed through the system, spending his age 18 season in rookie ball, his age 19 season in low-a, and his age 20 season in high-a where he will open up his age 21 season. on friday night, he started his first game of the year and pitched 7 innings with 7ks, giving up just 1 hit and 0 walks.

since his debut in 2008, his k rate has increased each year from 6.62 to 7.32 to 10.19 last year. his era, however, skyrocketed from less than 2.80 in each of his first two years to 5.58 last year. his fip was only 3.89 though and was more consistent with his low 3 fips from previous years. the high era can probably be attributed to his increased bb rate which doubled from 08 to 10, from 2.26 to 5.50. that number though was tempered by his increased k rate and was reflected in his slightly increased fip number.

what keeps his fip reasonably low and what should come back to normal this year is his strand rate, which was around 72% previously but dropped sharply to 60.7% in 2010. his babip also jumped from .273 to .341. finally, the last reason that his fip was reasonably low with all those walks is that his hr rate is only 0.52 and was even lower the previous two years.

the mets front office has taken a mildly approach than the previous regimes (especially tony bernazard who famously tried to fight one of his minor league affiliates) who would promote rapidly if you showed any signs of success. one of the more famous examples of this was fernando martinez and that hasn't worked out so great. the new front office will mostly take a case-by-case approach but should probably allow their raw prospects to enjoy some prolonged success before pushing them up a level.

in jeurys' case, his high era last year should drop significantly if he can keep his k rate high, regardless of his walk rate, simply bc his babip and strand rate should both move towards the norm. if he can get his walk rate back to his career norm of 4.00 at the same time, he could be looking at some gaudy numbers. with some luck even, we could be looking at a sub 3 era, which would result in a nice dose of confidence moving forward.

as it usually is with most prospects i am hoping for the best. jeurys made 24 starts last year, pitching about 5 innings per start. hopefully he can make about 10 starts in high-a ball before being promoted to double-a (with matt harvey perhaps), where they definitely can use some starting pitching help. familia will certainly need to work on his control and command to limit his walks but some scouts have predicted a move to the bullpen anyway once he moves up the system. either way, confidence can't hurt and it seems as though he's well on his way to achieving that early in this season.

....shooting for a 2013 arrival

fantasy trade review

i am the commissioner of an espn auction fantasy baseball league. there are 11 teams and 1 team purchased about 7 closers and figured they would use them as assets in trades. that's a fine strategy depending on how much you paid for them and depending on whether or not you're going to get equal value especially when other teams know you want to get rid of a few of them.

so a couple of days ago i received the specifics of an accepted trade detailed here:
Team A (w/7 closers): gives 1) buster posey; 2) nick markakis; 3) brandon lyon
Team B (w/2 closers): gives 1) kurt suzuki; 2) curtis granderson

my first reaction was shock. as i do whenever i question the motives of the trading partners, i immediately contacted the manager of Team A. he proceeded to tell me that he thought granderson would produce and that his plan was to pick up jorge posada as his catcher to replace posey. if you look at espn's projections for 2011, his logic actually made sense.

one manager in particular was screaming bloody foul at this trade and demanded i veto the trade. but, it is not my duty to veto trades i disagree with but rather to protect against complete idiocy (like trading for an injured player) or collusion... this was neither (it was just plain old idiocy).

the bottom line is that managers are going to fall in love with particular players and there is no logic behind it. year after year people will overpay for the hot prospect or big name player who is 2 years removed from their career year. it's the nature of the fantasy beast.

in this case, Team A was willing to rid themselves of arguably the 2nd best catcher in baseball, a solid outfielder and a closer with a job for a yankee who can't hit lefties and bats in the 7/8 hole most nites. to make matters worse, jorge posada was picked up by another team ruining his plan anyway.

is this the worst trade i've ever seen? probably not, but if i'm going to trade away a valuable asset like a closer and a premiere young stud at a weak position i better be getting back a helluva lot more than a future platoon player.

the smell test

i grew up going to mets games but really didn't become a fan of baseball until '95 when the 'iron man' saved baseball. he certainly did for me. then in '96 the yankees won the series and although i was/am not a yanks fan i am from new york so it brought baseball to the forefront. then in '98 i got pulled into the mcgwire/sosa hr chase and was hooked. the mets were finally competitive in '99 with their "best infield defense ever" and in '00 with their world series appearance. i read moneyball sometime in '04 and my love/interest/respect for baseball has grown exponentially ever since. fantasy and the rays have kept my interest level high even while my mets disappointment year after year.

i present my short history of fandom simply to say that i have not followed baseball closely for all that long. but in '95 when i started to become a true fan, manny ramirez had his first full season of abs for the cleveland indians. since then he's been an offensive force,with a career triple slash of 312/411/585. we don't need to go into his career accomplishments or shortcomings in great detail because others have done that with far greater success. i simply believe that based on the smell test (and i've been told i have the power of super smell - true) manny is one of the greatest hitters i have ever seen and is a clear hall of famer.

my list, off the top of my head, includes bonds, arod, chipper jones, pujols, and frank thomas as the most feared hitters in the league over the past 15 years. whether it was getting on base, driving in runs or hitting in the 'clutch' these players could do it all at the plate. you dont' need to be a sabermetric nerd or a jeter-intangibles nut to appreciate their value. it was never a question of whether they were great but of how great...and this is a sign of a hall of famer. when you start comparing players to jimmie foxx is there really a question of their candidacy?

i don't fault anyone who feels cheated by those caught using peds (i have neutral feelings) but i don't believe that the clear cut hall of famers (bonds, clemens) should be left out for suspicion or even failed drug tests. plenty of players used and never put up numbers like they have. players like manny were too good for too long to be simply dismissed as a ped enhanced cheater. for the rest of time i will think about manny and be reminded of his ferocious bat, disinterested look and 165 rbis in 1999 (the most since the aforementioned jimmie foxx in 1938).

mlb predictions 2011

the red sox stand at 0-6 and were my preseason pick to win it all but no team has ever won the world series starting off this poorly so i must change my mind right? well, read on...

nl east: the phillies have the pitching to spare but what about their offense? i didn't buy it even before utley was likely done for the year. now, im certainly jumping ship on their offense. they are all on the wrong side of 30 and their only young stud (brown) is out for the next month at least. the braves are a solid team with breakout potential (heyward, hanson), veteran winners (chipper, hudson), youth (freeman, kimbrel), and old reliables (prado, uggla, mccann, lowe). the bet of the year was the phillies-under (97.5 when i looked) and i think both teams will be in the 94-win range.

i'll pick the braves simply because i think utley is out for the year (or ineffective).

nl central: a 4-team race between the reds, brewers, cards and cubs. i am not a fan of the reds pitching as much as some but their offense is legit. the wainwright injury hurts the cards but i won't say the pujols/carpenter/larussa cards are ever out of it. the cubs are a mess but if rob neyer is a believer then i'll give them a shot. my team of this group are the brewers...fielder is in his contract year and braun/weeks/hart are all very good on offense. their strength is in greinke/gallardo/marcum, the best rotation in the division when healthy. with no elite team in the division the brewers should be able top get healthy in time to win 91 and win the division by 2 games over the reds.

nl west: belt, belt, belt and the nl west will follow. i also predict the giants will make a trade for jose reyes at the deadline. posey might be the best player in the division already and has lincecum gone anywhere else? the rockies and dodgers are both solid teams but i think they cap out at 86 while the giants get to 92.

wildcard: phillies. or braves if the phillies win the nl east. always hedge.

al east: it's only 6 games and i'm not necessarily picking them to win the world series but they are the best team in baseball starters, relief, offense, defense. did they all just become untalented? doubtful. 97 wins and only because they play in the al east. this is a 105 win team in the al west.

al central: liriano is going to the yanks so goodbye 2011 twins. the tigers have verlander and miggy but no thanks. the white sox have a solid rotation, bullpen (love thornton/sale), and i love their offense. dunn is going to light it up. beckham and quentin will rebound a lot. konerko, alexei, rios should be solid. only 90 wins but plenty to get by in this division.

al west: why do people want to compare the a's to the giants of last year? because they both are pitching deep and offense light? well, i don't see a lincecum on their staff. i love brett anderson but cahill will regress a ton and gio will too a bit. their middle of the order is dejesus, willingham and barton. yikes. give me the rangers easy with their offensive firepower. no one in that division can hit with them and i think the rotation will be solid once again (cliff lee was not the dominant force for them last year as you might think). 94 wins in that division.

wildcard: yankees. with liriano in the fold they'll win 94 to be the 2nd best team in the al.

world series: yankees over giants. the bullpen dominates in the playoffs (joba, soriano, mo, feliciano)

nl mvp: buster posey. he's got the complete package and the most responsibilities on a contending team.

nl cy young: roy halladay. simply the best.

ny roy: craig kimbrel. 40 ks in 20 ip last year? doesn't seem to be slowing down either.

al mvp: adrian gonzalez. best player on the best team. i'm a believer in the early analyst favorite.

al cy young: felix has been groomed to be the best pitcher in baseball and he's almost there. he's still the best in the al.

al roy: jordan walden. now with the closer spot locked up voters won't be able to resist.

we'll check back in at the end of the year and see how my predictions stacked up.

my mets....

it's been a long time my friends (imaginary friends most likely). i'm looking back at my 2008 mlb 2nd half predictions and i ended up 7 of 8 for my division and wildcard winners. the only problem was that my one wrong prediction ended up being the world series champs.... and the bane of my baseball existence. i chose the mets to win the nl east and the brewers to win the wildcard. at least the brewers did their part and we know how the rest of the story worked out.

well, now it's 2011 and it's a whole other story - and by that i mean the mets won't be in 1st at any point this year. as i write this post, the mets just lost to the phillies 11-0 and stand at 3-3 while the phillies are 5-1. here goes my mets 2011 preview:

we gotta start at the top. i'm hoping that this whole madoff mess forces the wilpons to sell the team but i've been told repeatedly that this will not be happening. it doesn't mean anything if they sell just a minority stake because they own a larger piece of their team than most other owners in mlb. it seems as though they have kept their mouths shut this offseason and stopped with the micro managing. let's hope that this is a new trend.

next up, we have the brain trust of sandy alderson, jp riccardi, paul depodesta and john ricco (the only holdover from 2010). their titles are irrelevant because they are trying to mesh together all phases of the organization into a cohesive unit. john ricco is prob more involved in the business side of things, however. they all make a lot of money and there should be no reason this unit can't be one of the best in baseball.

terry collins seems like a straight shooter. i have nothing bad to say about him at this point, but it's all about winning and making smart decisions in the process. so, let's just say that we'll see what happens.

when it comes to the major league roster, i think the consensus is that their offense can be solid if they can avoid the injury bug that has haunted this unit in the past, while the pitching staff will probably have a hard time repeating their surprising numbers from last year.

bullpen: this unit has the most turnover but that's not really all that important. sandy has done a great job finding some decent options for cheap while also making sure that they were able to retain some depth in the organization after everyone seemingly cleared waivers.

starters: it's a bunch of 3/4 starters. pelfrey is no ace. in fact, i wouldn't be surprised to see him be the worst pitcher of the bunch this year. i'm a believer in dickey and niese should def continue to grow as a solid contributor. chris young is ok if healthy and capuano is fine as a #5. they have no upside so getting average production from the group will be fine with me.

offense: they can be a top 5 offense in the senior circuit, again, if avoiding the dl stints. reyes is in a contract year and is still just 28 with tons of tools. pagan is solid. wright is 28 and has regained his form. beltran has no more knees but he is in a contract year as well and wants to keep playing after this year. bay is on the dl again but will bounce back some at least this year. ike davis is legit - he should hit 20+ hrs. emaus/murphy are unknowns and i don't expect much, but thole is a solid #8 hitter and should be able to post above average obp with limited power. the bench has a solid mix of power and speed. paulino was a great signing (top 5 ba against lhp over the last few years).

defense: pagan and davis can both be gold glovers at cf and 1b, respectively. emaus and thole are both unknowns. as for the rest of them, they should be solid, if not spectacular.

minors: i'm a believer in fmart. i know he has arthritis at age 22 and he no longer can play cf, let alone a solid rf, but he's 22! his bat is quick and his power has come. obviously if you can't play you can't be good but why obsess over things like that. while we're at it, i'm also a believer in reese havens, the other 1st round pick from 2008 (along with ike davis), who finally moved from ss to 2b this past year but is always injured. he's opening the year on the dl once again after having part of his rib removed to help alleviate his oblique pain. we have some decent players in the minors but so do most teams. the mets have nothing that special.

prediction: a 500 team sounds nice right about now. best case scenario is that we stay healthy, stay productive and get santana back at the break. even then, i think the upside is 90 wins at best and an outside shot at the wildcard. worst case scenario is that we are injured, call up our not-so-great minor league backups, trade reyes at the deadline, trade beltran at the deadline (if he's even playing) and decide not to bring back santana bc, honestly, why would we? then we're a 70 win team at best and i'm not sure where we can go from here.

i believe in intelligence (and money). we have the 1st part down now that we've hired 3 smart former gms and we SHOULD have the 2nd part because we're the fucking new york mets.... but who knows what's going to happen with this madoff mess and until then the future looks suspect.