promoted: jeurys familia (in aa)

the last time we spoke (or i spoke and you ignored), we were evaluating familia's 3rd start of the year. since then, he's made 3 more starts, 2 great, 1 not so. his starts (4-6) resulting in the following:
4) 7 ip, 3 h, 0 runs, 3 bb, 8 ks
5) 4 ip, 7 h, 4 er, 1 hr, 1 bb, 5 ks
6) 6.2 ip, 5 h, 1 er, 0 bb, 6 ks

his last start was on may 5 and on sunday he was promoted to aa (in binghamton, ny). as i predicted a may call up is probably wise as the weather heats up in upstate new york. familia's final line in high-a ball was
ip: 36.1
hits: 21
bb: 8
k: 36
er: 6
hr: 1

as we discussed in our first familia post, he was due for a bit of regression this year (with his bad luck) hopefully resulting in some good luck. that has surely come. his babip is a mere .225. his strand rate is over 80%, both career highs. his hr/9 is .25 which is below his career average as well. his k rate is the 2nd best of his career at 8.92 and his bb rate is easily his lowest at 1.98.

we discussed previously the reason we were so confident in his performance this season and believed that it would lead to greater confidence and a may promotion. now that we are at that moment, the question now becomes how he handles the promotion.

jeurys' 1.49 era is not a proper representation of his skills. the jump to aa will make that very clear. the single most important statistic for familia will be his bb rate. he pitches over 6 innings per start mostly due to his ability to limit the free passes. his k rate should continue to be respectable but aa hitters will be much more skilled and patient at the plate.

familia will most certainly spend the rest of this year at aa. and in doing so, a lot of the questions about his future will be answered - can he be a starter or is he destined for the bullpen? his fastball sits around 94 and is a solid offering, but his changeup and slider are nothing special at this point. he needs to maintain his command and control if he has any chance to be a starter in the big leagues. we will find out a lot in the next few months whether he currently has that ability.