nl east: the phillies have the pitching to spare but what about their offense? i didn't buy it even before utley was likely done for the year. now, im certainly jumping ship on their offense. they are all on the wrong side of 30 and their only young stud (brown) is out for the next month at least. the braves are a solid team with breakout potential (heyward, hanson), veteran winners (chipper, hudson), youth (freeman, kimbrel), and old reliables (prado, uggla, mccann, lowe). the bet of the year was the phillies-under (97.5 when i looked) and i think both teams will be in the 94-win range.
i'll pick the braves simply because i think utley is out for the year (or ineffective).
nl central: a 4-team race between the reds, brewers, cards and cubs. i am not a fan of the reds pitching as much as some but their offense is legit. the wainwright injury hurts the cards but i won't say the pujols/carpenter/larussa cards are ever out of it. the cubs are a mess but if rob neyer is a believer then i'll give them a shot. my team of this group are the brewers...fielder is in his contract year and braun/weeks/hart are all very good on offense. their strength is in greinke/gallardo/marcum, the best rotation in the division when healthy. with no elite team in the division the brewers should be able top get healthy in time to win 91 and win the division by 2 games over the reds.
nl west: belt, belt, belt and the nl west will follow. i also predict the giants will make a trade for jose reyes at the deadline. posey might be the best player in the division already and has lincecum gone anywhere else? the rockies and dodgers are both solid teams but i think they cap out at 86 while the giants get to 92.
wildcard: phillies. or braves if the phillies win the nl east. always hedge.
al east: it's only 6 games and i'm not necessarily picking them to win the world series but they are the best team in baseball starters, relief, offense, defense. did they all just become untalented? doubtful. 97 wins and only because they play in the al east. this is a 105 win team in the al west.
al central: liriano is going to the yanks so goodbye 2011 twins. the tigers have verlander and miggy but no thanks. the white sox have a solid rotation, bullpen (love thornton/sale), and i love their offense. dunn is going to light it up. beckham and quentin will rebound a lot. konerko, alexei, rios should be solid. only 90 wins but plenty to get by in this division.
al west: why do people want to compare the a's to the giants of last year? because they both are pitching deep and offense light? well, i don't see a lincecum on their staff. i love brett anderson but cahill will regress a ton and gio will too a bit. their middle of the order is dejesus, willingham and barton. yikes. give me the rangers easy with their offensive firepower. no one in that division can hit with them and i think the rotation will be solid once again (cliff lee was not the dominant force for them last year as you might think). 94 wins in that division.
wildcard: yankees. with liriano in the fold they'll win 94 to be the 2nd best team in the al.
world series: yankees over giants. the bullpen dominates in the playoffs (joba, soriano, mo, feliciano)
nl mvp: buster posey. he's got the complete package and the most responsibilities on a contending team.
nl cy young: roy halladay. simply the best.
ny roy: craig kimbrel. 40 ks in 20 ip last year? doesn't seem to be slowing down either.
al mvp: adrian gonzalez. best player on the best team. i'm a believer in the early analyst favorite.
al cy young: felix has been groomed to be the best pitcher in baseball and he's almost there. he's still the best in the al.
al roy: jordan walden. now with the closer spot locked up voters won't be able to resist.
we'll check back in at the end of the year and see how my predictions stacked up.
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