my mets....

it's been a long time my friends (imaginary friends most likely). i'm looking back at my 2008 mlb 2nd half predictions and i ended up 7 of 8 for my division and wildcard winners. the only problem was that my one wrong prediction ended up being the world series champs.... and the bane of my baseball existence. i chose the mets to win the nl east and the brewers to win the wildcard. at least the brewers did their part and we know how the rest of the story worked out.

well, now it's 2011 and it's a whole other story - and by that i mean the mets won't be in 1st at any point this year. as i write this post, the mets just lost to the phillies 11-0 and stand at 3-3 while the phillies are 5-1. here goes my mets 2011 preview:

we gotta start at the top. i'm hoping that this whole madoff mess forces the wilpons to sell the team but i've been told repeatedly that this will not be happening. it doesn't mean anything if they sell just a minority stake because they own a larger piece of their team than most other owners in mlb. it seems as though they have kept their mouths shut this offseason and stopped with the micro managing. let's hope that this is a new trend.

next up, we have the brain trust of sandy alderson, jp riccardi, paul depodesta and john ricco (the only holdover from 2010). their titles are irrelevant because they are trying to mesh together all phases of the organization into a cohesive unit. john ricco is prob more involved in the business side of things, however. they all make a lot of money and there should be no reason this unit can't be one of the best in baseball.

terry collins seems like a straight shooter. i have nothing bad to say about him at this point, but it's all about winning and making smart decisions in the process. so, let's just say that we'll see what happens.

when it comes to the major league roster, i think the consensus is that their offense can be solid if they can avoid the injury bug that has haunted this unit in the past, while the pitching staff will probably have a hard time repeating their surprising numbers from last year.

bullpen: this unit has the most turnover but that's not really all that important. sandy has done a great job finding some decent options for cheap while also making sure that they were able to retain some depth in the organization after everyone seemingly cleared waivers.

starters: it's a bunch of 3/4 starters. pelfrey is no ace. in fact, i wouldn't be surprised to see him be the worst pitcher of the bunch this year. i'm a believer in dickey and niese should def continue to grow as a solid contributor. chris young is ok if healthy and capuano is fine as a #5. they have no upside so getting average production from the group will be fine with me.

offense: they can be a top 5 offense in the senior circuit, again, if avoiding the dl stints. reyes is in a contract year and is still just 28 with tons of tools. pagan is solid. wright is 28 and has regained his form. beltran has no more knees but he is in a contract year as well and wants to keep playing after this year. bay is on the dl again but will bounce back some at least this year. ike davis is legit - he should hit 20+ hrs. emaus/murphy are unknowns and i don't expect much, but thole is a solid #8 hitter and should be able to post above average obp with limited power. the bench has a solid mix of power and speed. paulino was a great signing (top 5 ba against lhp over the last few years).

defense: pagan and davis can both be gold glovers at cf and 1b, respectively. emaus and thole are both unknowns. as for the rest of them, they should be solid, if not spectacular.

minors: i'm a believer in fmart. i know he has arthritis at age 22 and he no longer can play cf, let alone a solid rf, but he's 22! his bat is quick and his power has come. obviously if you can't play you can't be good but why obsess over things like that. while we're at it, i'm also a believer in reese havens, the other 1st round pick from 2008 (along with ike davis), who finally moved from ss to 2b this past year but is always injured. he's opening the year on the dl once again after having part of his rib removed to help alleviate his oblique pain. we have some decent players in the minors but so do most teams. the mets have nothing that special.

prediction: a 500 team sounds nice right about now. best case scenario is that we stay healthy, stay productive and get santana back at the break. even then, i think the upside is 90 wins at best and an outside shot at the wildcard. worst case scenario is that we are injured, call up our not-so-great minor league backups, trade reyes at the deadline, trade beltran at the deadline (if he's even playing) and decide not to bring back santana bc, honestly, why would we? then we're a 70 win team at best and i'm not sure where we can go from here.

i believe in intelligence (and money). we have the 1st part down now that we've hired 3 smart former gms and we SHOULD have the 2nd part because we're the fucking new york mets.... but who knows what's going to happen with this madoff mess and until then the future looks suspect.