tim beckham (picture left) is set to be drafted by the rays at #1. so where does that leave buster posey? is he going to drop to #3? #5? out of the top ten? i know these are the questions that have been keeping you up at night right? probably not i guess.
today at 2pm, baseball's rule 4 draft (this is the first year player draft, rule 5 draft is in december) begins. it's essentially the same as the nba draft in june and the nfl draft in april except who even knows who tim beckham or buster posey are? i couldn't pick them out of a lineup of one.
we get excited for the nfl draft cuz most people follow college sports, the bcs bs and for the fact that mel kiper is on espn almost every two minutes. we also know all the best college basketball players; we watched derrick rose light it up in the championship game, watched beasley dominate all year and even watched the mid-level prospects like hansborough scrap it out for high-profile programs.
but college baseball is a second-rate spectator sport. the college world series is fun to watch but when do we ever get a chance to see long beach state play cal state-fullerton during the season? but even beyond that, the mlb draft is so heavily laden with high school players who we never get a chance to watch play (we even saw lebron james' high school team play on espn).
maybe the biggest detriment to being able to follow the draft is that pro baseball is so different than amateur ball. the game doesn't translate as well as in the other sports. drafts, even to a greater degree than in other sports, is built on promise and potential. how will a batter progress when facing high level breaking balls using a wood bat for the first time? will a pitcher be able to get by, like he did in high school, using his mid-90s fastball? doubtful. it's almost impossible to use a college (or hs) players numbers and then translate them into professional success. and the ability of scouts to determine potential is such a crapshoot that sometimes we find the mike piazzas drafted past the 50th round (realize that tom brady was drafted in the 6th round).
finally, let's not forget to mention the importance of a team's developmental program. every team has organizational philosophies on how to approach a player's development. do we emphasize the slider rather than other breaking pitches? do we allow slow development and success early on or do we push a player in order to make him struggle? these are just a few of the variables that go into the draft.
the mlb draft is a great time to get excited for your team, but it's also dangerous. the mets could draft player X and i'd have no idea whether or not he was better than player A that fell ten spots lower. i've never watched any of them play and thus have no ability to form any opinion on my own.
this is the first year that the mlb draft will be televised (on espn 2) and to prepare i've been reading scouting reports for the past three months on the top 50 or so prospects. but truth be told, when the mets make their picks, i'll be enthusiastic and optimistic, but i'll remember one thing: more than half of these players will never even make it to the show.
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