the kentucky derby has got mint juleps and big hats; the preakness stakes has beer and big boobs; And the belmont stakes has.... well, this year, it's finally got another triple crown candidate.
the kentucky derby is always a big event, the first race of the triple crown series. the preakness almost always features the kentucky derby winner so inherently the excitement is there for a triple crown winner. but the belmont stakes? well, it's fun when a horse like big brown is vying for a place in history, but it's like a big 'who cares?' when the triple crown threat is absent.
big brown (pictured above at the derby; #20) is trying to become the 12th horse to claim horse racing's most prestigious title. however, since 1978's 'affirmed', he'll be the 10th horse to try and accomplish this feat. the last 9 have all failed (last one was smarty jones in 04).
what makes big brown different? well, most people say that his competition is fairly weak. and the one horse they brought in (from japan) is now injured and may not even race. that would have been an interesting matchup as casino drive (ridden by edgar prado) has been bred to run a mile and half (the length of the belmont stakes, significantly longer than the derby and slightly longer than the preakness).
now with the second favorite (morning line of 7-2) possibly out of the picture or at least somewhat subdued, who will be there to stop big brown? the answer to that question may be the track itself, famous for its length and difficulty. the winning horse will have to pace itself and position itself much more so than in the other two races. usually in horse races, you can spot the winner going into the final turn. the horse that was in the middle of the pack right before the final turn and has made his final strong move to the outside and to the lead pack is usually the one that pulls it through. that's what big brown did at the derby, with a very difficult #20 pole position (far outside).
in this race, he'll be positioned at #1, which is historically a good position for the stakes (which has far fewer horses than the derby; 10 v. 20 this year). however, he will have to either hold back for the first half and give himself a chance to make his move outside or will have to get off to a strong start. if not, he runs the risk of being caught against the rail on any of the turns, which could slow his momentum and spell disaster for his chances.
at 2-5, big brown is surely the favorite to win this race. the third favorite is at a distant 12-1 and then it is all longshots. if i were a betting man (which i am), i'd take a long hard look at the 8,9 and 10 horses, all of whom have the luxuries of either experience, great trainers or great jockeys. in a race like this, that may make all the difference.
i personally will be attendance and hope for nothing less than history. my pick: superfecta of 1, 10, 5, 9 (assuming casino races).
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