lessons learned

saturday came and went and we still haven't had a triple crown winner since 1978. what's the lesson to be learned from this? i'd have to say that the lesson is don't by into the hype. big brown had two great races in the derby and preakness and was coming into this race 5-0, never being defeated. the 6 horse that won lost to big brown by 23 lengths in their first ever meeting months ago. well, things have certainly changed.

you could say that it was the heat. you could say that it was the mile and a half length of belmont. you could say that it was the cracked hoof or the lack of preparation due to the cracked hoof. maybe the pressure got to the horse. who knows.

i'm happy that kent desormeaux, the jockey, pulled up towards the end of the race so not to risk any further injury to big brown (leg injuries are quite serious to horses and usually lead to euthanasia). but looking back on the race, i'm embarrassed i didn't see it earlier.

big brown entered the race at 1-4 odds. that's quite high. but is that an accurate reflection of his chances? no. like vegas odds, it merely reflects perception and tries to create equality on both sides of the betting world. the line was at 1-4 because the line makers knew that people would still bet huge on big brown. so the line, is in some sense, a fabrication.

also, take into consideration that big brown's numbers (times) weren't historically that impressive and that he was suffering from an injury that limited his preparation and you get a horse that I probably shouldn't have taken at 1-4. obviously this is all easy to say in hindsight.